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Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedanceprobability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02. Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions. Introduction Water resource management in a drainage basin requires knowledge of the water budget. The water budget states that the rate of change of water volume in a drainage basin is balanced by the flow in and out of all the surface water bodies (for example, lakes, streams, reservoirs, and wetlands) and underlying groundwater that make up the drainage basin (Healy and others, 2007). In Minnesota, the County Geologic Atlas program provides basic information on surficial and buried aquifers, including maps that detail the distribution and the lithologic and hydrogeologic properties of rock and sediments that lie below the land surface (Setterholm, 2014); this information can help estimate the volume of groundwater in storage within a particular geological unit. For streams and rivers with active streamgage networks, the volume and rate of surface-water flows at a streamgaged location are well quantified. For surficial aquifers, the volume and rate of groundwater flow in and out of surface water bodies are affected by the amount of surface-water flow and flow to and from deeper aquifers (Winter and others, 1998). Water budgets provide a means for evaluating water availability and sustainability in the absence of robust groundwater modeling to determine sustainable groundwater yields within a basin or long-term monitoring of streamflow to determine continuous surface-water flows. These water budgets can be an important initial step for determining the water balance; however, predevelopment water budgets should not be used as the sole source of information for determining the amount of groundwater withdrawal that can happen in a watershed or to preserve minimum ecological streamflows (Bredehoeft, 1997). The initial water budget generally requires accurate estimates of the spatial and temporal distribution of the water budget components, including potential recharge, surface runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), inflow from surface-water bodies and groundwater, and outflow from surface-water bodies and groundwater. The Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model was developed to estimate the volume of potential recharge using widely available geographic information system datasets (Westenbroek and others, 2010) and includes estimates of ET and surface runoff. The SWB modeling assumes most 2 Streamflow Distribution Maps for the Cannon River Drainage Basin and the St. Louis River Drainage Basin, Minnesota potential recharge eventually flows into nearby surface-water systems as base flow. Combined with surface runoff, this analysis can be the first step for a water budget. Another common problem with developing water budgets is that streamgages are not available to compute streamflow at every stream location; however, methods have been developed to estimate flow-duration curve (FDC) statistics at stream locations in Minnesota (Ziegeweid and others, 2015) with little or no long-term monitoring data, such as the upper reaches of large drainage basins. An FDC is a cumulative frequency curve that shows the fraction of time that specified streamflow is equaled or exceeded (Searcy, 1959). An FDC is built by sorting streamflow observed during a given period by magnitude and calculating the probability that a specified streamflow value will be equaled or exceeded. The fraction of time that the streamflow is calculated to have been equaled or exceeded is termed exceedance probability. At an ungaged location, the FDC is constructed from regression-based estimates of streamflow for 13 exceedance probabilities (0.9999, 0.999, 0.99, 0.95, 0.9, 0.75, 0.5, 0.25, 0.1, 0.05, 0.02, 0.001, and 0.0001) that cover the range of streamflow (Lorenz and Ziegeweid, 2016). The FDC statistics define exceedance probabilities, and they are not a substitute for calculating continuous streamflow; instead, the FDC can provide a mechanism to assess water availability and determine initial estimates for sustained flow requirements (Unthank and others, 2012). The contribution of base flow to total streamflow can be calculated for lower flow conditions, such as droughts, by integrating the SWB water budget components and the FDC exceedance probabilities. Additionally, the combined contribution of base flow and surface runoff at higher flow conditions, such as floods, can be estimated with this approach. To help guide the efforts made by the State of Minnesota to define water use sustainability from surficial aquifers and effectively manage streamflow during low-flow conditions, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the LegislativeCitizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, combined SWB and FDC components to create a series of streamflow distribution maps for two pilot drainage basins. The selected streamflow distribution maps represent the relative contribution of base flow and surface runoff to total volume of streamflow for typical conditions, not necessarily the contribution for any particular time. These maps will help guide potential State cooperators such as the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources and the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency for proactive water management, ensure streamflows meet ecological needs at different flow conditions, and assist with decisions for groundwater appropriations at low-flow conditions.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota