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• As a first approximation of such changes, we have modeled potential shifts of terrestrial vegetation across the Hawaiian landscape between now and the end of this century. Our approach relies on modeling the relation between current climate and the distribution of broad, climatically determined moisture zones (for example, dry, mesic, and wet areas) that form the basis of natural landcover classification classes in Hawaiʻi (for example, dry forests, wet forests, mesic shrublands).

Projecting end-of-century shifts in the spatial pattern of plant-available water across Hawai‘i to assess implication to vegetation shifts