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The concept of probability gain associated with a precursor may be useful for unifying various areas of earthquake prediction research. Judging from the success of predicting the Haicheng earthquake of 1975, the probability gain at each stage of long-term, intermediate-term, short-term and imminent prediction in this case is estimated as a factor of about 30. For many independent precursors, the Baysian theorem shows that the total probability gain is approximately the product of individual gains. The probability gain for an individual precursor may be calculated as its success rate divided by the precursor time (Utsu, 1979). The success rate can only be determined from the accumulation of experiences with actual earthquakes. The precursor time, on the other hand, may be studied experimentally and theoretically. A review of these studies leads to a suggestion that the loading rate may be faster for smaller earthquakes. The existence of so called "sensitive spots" where precursory strain, radon or other geochemical anomalies to show up even for distant earthquakes suggest that some sites may have stress amplification (concentration) effect which may also account for higher loading rate for a small earthquake.

Development of a quantitative model of stress in a seismic region as a basis for earthquake prediction