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By taking into consideration historical climate record and trends in basin response to various climatic conditions, it was determined flood risk will remain high in the Souris River Basin until the wet climate state ends. During a wet climate state there is about a 0.2-percent chance, in any given year, that there will be another flood like the 2011 flood (or greater). In other words, if the current wet climate state continues during the next 10 years, there is about a 2-percent chance that there will be another flood like the 2011 flood (or greater). Specifically, when looking at Rafferty Reservoir (the primary flood-control structure for downstream communities), there is a 3-percent chance in any given year that the annual capacity will be exceeded. This means that if the wet climate state continues during the next 10 years, there is about a 30-percent chance Rafferty’s annual capacity will be exceeded.

2011 Souris River flood—Will it happen again?