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• Uncertainty analysis provided insights as to the reliability of the model inputs and model results. • Brackish water is not expected to move appreciably toward production wells near the transition zone interface if a repeat of drought-of-record conditions (1950–56) occurs. • The model is reliable for predicting brackish-water movement near production wells. • The model is not reliable for predicting Bexar County index well J-17 water levels or for predicting flows at Comal and San Marcos Springs. • Many hydraulic properties of the Edwards aquifer, as well as recharge to the aquifer, remain highly uncertain, even after the model has been calibrated.

New insights into the Edwards Aquifer—Brackish-water simulation, drought, and the role of uncertainty analysis