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This study develops a location optimization planning framework for elder care facilities in a local city. Using a target ratio of facility supply, it is relatively easy to estimate the number of target facilities during maximum demand. A spatial perspective is added for locating new facilities and allocation of the care requiring seniors into facilities that incorporate GIS-based concentration of urban functions and daily life orientation of the elderly. This suggests that it should be possible to construct an efficient nearly optimal service supply system by locating and allocating facilities that accurately reflect spheres of daily life of the elderly. By performing similar estimates in 2040 when the elderly population is smaller, we are able to estimate facilities that can be decommissioned and/or torn down. Shortcomings attributed to estimation errors, limited assumption conditions, prioritization in locating new care facilities, and other biases in locating of current facilities are also pointed out.

DEVELOPMENT OF A LOCATION OPTIMIZATION PLANNING FRAMEWORK FOR CARE FACILITIES BASED ON ESTIMATION OF DISTRIBUTION OF SENIOR PEOPLE ON GIS