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x Chapter 1 : Introduction 1 1.1 The purpose of study 4 1. 2 Statement of the problem 7 1. 3 Methodology 10 1. 4 Organization of the Study 13 Chapter 2 : Review of Literature and Theory 14 2.1 Power changes and alliance credibility 15 2.2 The Theory Based on Dyadic Power Shifts 18 2.2.1 Demand of Contributing Role 19 2.2.2 Gap of Threat Perception 25 Chapter 3 : Research Design 27 3.1 Overall methodology 28 3.2 Independent variable 28 3.3 Dependent variable 30 3.3.1 Alternative Dependent Variables for Robustness Tests 31 3.4 Control variables 34 3.4.1 Variables from Existing Theories 34 3.4.2 Other Control Variables on My Own Theory 40 Chapter 4: Empirical Results and Discussion 43 4.1 The Reduced and Full Model by Partial and All Control Variables 44 4.2 Comparison between Pre-1991 and Post-1990 Periods 46 4.3 Robustness Tests 48 4.4. Discussion 49 4.4.1 My Hypothesis and Application of Control Variables 50 4.4.2 The Cold War Environment 52 4.4.3 Three Alternative Dependent Variables 52 Chapter 5: Conclusion and Future Research 54 Bibliography 58 Appendix 1 Independent Variable 61 Appendix 2 Dependent Variable 62

Dyadic power shifts and alliance credibility: analysis of gap of the threat perception