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After a brief review on strong ground motion observation and estimation in continental convergence areas, predictive relationships are discussed with a special emphasis on the nearsource areas of large earthquakes. A comparison with relationships derived for low-magnitude events is made and it is demonstrated that the latter cannot be used to extrapolate the ground motion level for large-magnitude events. The acceleration at low frequencies can be successfully estimated through a deterministic modeling, given an appropriate knowledge about the velocity structure and earthquake source parameters. In particular, the question of the appropriateness of the velocity model is addressed. A series of tests to evaluate how well different 1D approximations of a 2D structural model reproduce the ground motion, in particular its peak amplitude,

Strong ground motion observation and estimation: From predictive relationships and modelling to real-time shakemaps