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Winter chill accumulation is critical for the productivity and profitability of perennial tree fruit systems. Several studies have quantified the impacts of global warming on chill accumulation in the warmer tree fruit and nut production regions of the world, where insufficient chill events are currently prevalent and the frequency of these events is increasing. In contrast, we focus on an important tree fruit production region with relatively cold winters and current absence of insufficient chill events, and quantify the potential for introduction of these risks under climate change and understand the key drivers and management implications. Our case study is the Pacific Northwest United States (PNW)- the leading apple producing region in the county. Our results identify large spatial variations in response within the PNW, with chill accumulation projected to increase in northern areas but decrease in southern areas. There is also spatial and temporal variation in the driving factors resulting in changes to chill accumulation. Our results highlight that with warming, colder regions can potentially shift from being regions where the spring phenology is primarily forcing-driven to one where the chilling and forcing processes significantly overlap and the dynamic interplay between these processes become important. These complex dynamics potentially create new production risks which have not historically been a concern and necessitate planning for management strategies such as overhead irrigation for cooling and chemical management of budbreak. Future work should focus on understanding, modelling and projecting responses across these overlapping chilling and forcing processes. Additionally, given significant spatial differences across a relatively small geographic range, it is also critical to understand and model these dynamics at a local landscape resolution for regions such as the PNW.

Climate change and chill accumulation: implications for tree fruit production in cold winter regions.