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Climate change is predicted to increase the incidence and severity of droughts and floods, thereby increasing the risk of crop failures and yield losses. Conservative estimates for maize suggest yields could drop between 20-80% in the US under plausible future climate scenarios. Higher levels of soil organic matter may help mitigate yield losses from drought because there are positive relationships between soil organic matter and soil water retention. Yet recent work suggests the actual effect of soil organic matter on plant available water is modest, and it is unclear whether these effects on water retention are great enough to reduce drought-induced yield losses. This lack of evidence is particularly pronounced at the scales at which many agricultural financing programs operate, meaning agricultural finance incentives are decoupled from soil-based, climate-adaptation strategies. Here, we evaluate relationships among soil organic matter, maize ( Zea mays  L.) yield, and drought between 2000-2016 at the county-level in the United States of America. We show that for 12,376 county-years in US corn-growing counties, those with higher soil organic matter were associated with greater yields and lower yield losses under drought, and this effect was most pronounced under severe droughts. An increase of 1% soil organic matter was associated with a yield increase of 2.2 Mg ha -1  under the most severe drought conditions. Further, higher soil organic matter is associated with lower rates of crop insurance payouts. An increase of 1% soil organic matter was associated with a reduction in the mean proportion of liabilities paid by 36% under the most severe drought. Our results suggest that soil organic matter content is an important predictor of the resilience of maize systems to drought at regional to continental scales and that data on soil organic matter should be used in agricultural policy and financial planning.

Soil organic matter effects on US maize production and crop insurance payouts under drought.