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Studying the variability of rainfall and its future projection during post-monsoon and winter season is important for providing the information to the farmers regarding crop planning. For evaluating rainfall scenario, long (1901-2005) and short term (1961-2005 and 1991-2005) rainfall data of nine selected IMD stations of South Bengalwas collected and subdivided into 30 year period up to 1990 and a 15 year period from 1991 to 2005. The data were subjected to trend analysis and available GCM data were compared with the observed rainfall data. The postmonsoon and winter rainfall changes during 1901-2005 were positive (except Krishnangar, -47.67 mm) and negative (except Alipore and Berhampur) respectively. During 1991-2005 all the stations recorded a positive change during post-monsoon, while reverse was true for winter. Among the different GCMs, INGV-ECHM4 estimated the postmonsoon rainfall at the best, whereas winter rainfall successfully estimated by MIROC-Hi. Future projection of both post-monsoon and winter rainfall over the region showed an increasing trend. This will help in policy formulation for water management in agriculture.

Rainfall trend analysis and its future projection over Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) region of India during post-monsoon and winter season