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Previous research has established that adolescent educational expectations for university study differ widely across UK ethnic minorities. Significant positive gaps in expectations remain between South Asian and Black Caribbean pupils who generally maintain significantly higher educational expectations than their white peers. This suggests that adolescent expectations are likely to be moderated by ethnicity. However, no research so far has systematically explored the extent to which earlier expectations at age 14 affect later expectations at age 15 and 16 both directly and indirectly, or which of these effects are moderated by ethnicity and which are not. Nor has it examined whether potential differences in pupils’ educational expectations between ages 14-16 due to moderation by ethnicity are significantly different. This quantitative study explores change in expectations over time and across UK ethnic groups in a psychometric framework using cohort panel data from waves 1-3 of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). An autoregressive longitudinal latent variable structural equation model addresses the above research questions and enables direct tests of the assumptions of invariance, stationarity and equilibrium typically only assumed to hold in similar multi-group comparisons. Differences over time and across groups in latent means and intercepts are also systematically estimated. Results show that pupils’ educational expectations change significantly differently across ages 14-16 in the five ethnic groups reflecting moderation by maternal ethnicity. Expectations at age 14 exert important direct and indirect effects on expectations at age 16 via expectations at age 15.There is a general fall in expectations at age 15. Cross-group differences in latent means and intercepts suggest that in contrast to their white peers, minority pupils recover from this fall at age 16.

athens journal of education

Does Ethnicity Moderate the Longitudinal Change in Adolescent Educational Expectations for University Study between ages 14-16? Understanding Differences among White, Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean Pupils in England