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The aim of this study is to estimate future potential changes in duration of extreme dry and&#x0D;wet spells and rainfall intensity in Eastern Mediterranean. For this purpose, daily&#x0D;precipitation amounts, deriving from the regional climate model of UK Hadley Centre&#x0D;HadRM3P have been used for the present (1960-1990) and the future period 2070-2100 on&#x0D;0.44° x 0.44° latitude by longitude grid. Future data are based on B2 IPCC emission&#x0D;scenario.&#x0D;For the identification of precipitation extremes three climatic indices were employed: a)&#x0D;CWD (Maximum number of consecutive wet days), b) CDD (Maximum number of&#x0D;consecutive dry days) and c) SDII (quotient of precipitation amount of wet days and the&#x0D;number of wet days of the period). They were calculated for the present and future period,&#x0D;on a seasonal and annual basis.&#x0D;A general future tendency was found towards drier Eastern Mediterranean, with reduced&#x0D;rainfall intensity. Longer dry spells are expected in all seasons, except autumn, with the&#x0D;largest increase in the southern part of the area. Extreme wet spells will shorten everywhere&#x0D;during all seasons, except autumn. Precipitation intensity was found reduced for all seasons&#x0D;and mostly for summer in South Aegean Sea.

Future changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Eastern Mediterranean