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Water resources shortage is a problem paid general attention to in today’s world. How to predict the clean water provided in a region become universal concern ever since. So we develop a NARSD Model to analysis water bearing capacity with the rate of water supply to water demand. It is improved from the traditional SDM (System Dynamics Model) which takes the correlations of variables in a system into consideration but is inflexible in parameters determination. So the feedback of the NARM is used to get main parameters, which get over the disadvantages of the SDM. Many factors that affect the water resources of quantity and quality are taken into account, for instance, water for domestic, industry, agriculture et al. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the above methods, We choose Beijing, an over-exploited city, to analyze how and why the water is scarce from the view of physical scarcity and economical scarcity and water resources bearing capacity. Finally, effective intervention will be put forward to solve relevant issues.

Analysis of Arid Area Urban Water Resources Bearing Capacity Based on NARSD Model