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The article outlines the author's model of risks and threats prediction as components of a comprehensive system of personnel safety management at an enterprise based on the application of the psychosocial approach. It is proved that the psychological features and behavior of employees may form the basis of such a model as the most significant factors in the formation of a safe personnel situation at the enterprise. The strengths and weaknesses of the Bayesian network, which today is widespread and at the same time promising methodical tool for modeling processes with uncertainties of arbitrary nature, are determined. The possibility and feasibility of adopting the Bayesian model in determining the probability of personnel hazards arising from the employees of the enterprise is justified. A step-by-step scenario for applying the Bayesian network using the results of expert assessments that have received verifiability has been presented. An algorithm for introducing a psychosocial approach to personnel risk assessment at an enterprise has been developed. It is emphasized that the model developed by the authors can be introduced into the practice of assessing the psychosocial potential of employees, which will allow not only to identify threats to human security, but also to set directions in improving the motivation mechanisms as a precondition for the enhancing of personnel security. Keywords—personnel security, economic security, modeling of personnel hazards risks, models of diagnosing threats to personnel security.

Modeling of Risks and Threats in the Management of Personnel Security of the Enterprise