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In essence, the key to solve the problem of multi-disaster probability risk assessment is to find out the joint probability distribution and its vulnerability function. Based on the principle of information diffusion, this paper proposes an integrated risk analysis model for earthquake and flood, the 2-dimension normal diffusion are employed to construct a discrete joint probability distribution and a disaster function, an integrated probability risk of multi-hazards is the expected value of disaster as a result. With building and ophiopogon as the subject matter of earthquake and flood disasters, applied in Santai county, Sichuan province, we calculate the Santai annual integrated risk is 584.5 million RMB, *通讯作者:hchongfu@bnu.edu.cn 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41671502), 国家重点研发计划(编号:2017YFC1502902) accounting for 2.617% of the local GDP in 2016.

An Estimate of the Integrated Risk of Flood and Earthquake in Santai County