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This paper focus on hazards, vulnerability and prevention ability three aspects to establish a model for evaluating the safety of aircraft take-off and landing, choosing high winds, low cloud and low visibility as the hazards. Among them, the trend of wind speed is obtained directly from the CMIP5 multi-model set data, and the cloud base height is replaced by the calculation of the lifting condensation level. For the prediction of visibility, this paper proposes a time series forecasting method based on the cloud theory, combined with a variety of meteorological elements of the airport ground. The vulnerability and prevention ability based on the security data of the local airport. Finally, we use the model to assess the risk of three different types of aircraft take-off and landing from 2016 to 2020. The results showed that: when other conditions remain unchanged, the weather and climate are not conducive to the normal operation of the airport in the future, and the different types are performed differently in the adaptability to climate change.  基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41276088) 作者简介:汪杨骏(1990-),男,硕士研究生,从事海洋环境风险评估 研究。Tel:18652097232;E-mail:492670449@qq.com *通讯作者:张韧,教授、博士生导师,从事海洋环境影响评估与决策 研究。E_mail: zrpaper@163.com

A Modeling Technology of Aircraft Landing Safety Prediction under the Extreme Weather Conditions in the Future Based on Cloud Theory