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Road traffic safety system is a grey system, which can be forecasted by the optimized Grey Verhulst model developed in this paper. The original Grey Verhulst model is optimized and improved from two aspects: the grey whitening derivative problem and the initial values. The new optimized model is established to forecast road traffic accidents, meanwhile the detail modeling steps is also given. Taking Chinese’s road traffic accident statistics as an example, the optimized model is tested. The result shows that the improved Grey Verhulst model is with high prediction accuracy and low error, which provides a reference for the accurate prediction of road traffic accidents.

Road Traffic Accident Forecast Based on Optimized Grey Verhulst Model