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The article presents the results of assessing the variability of extreme events, which include droughts and rainfall. The statistical properties of long-term series of maximum daily precipitation and yield of grain crops are determined. It is shown that the maximum daily precipitation affecting water erosion can be described by the Pearson type III distribution law, and the soil erosion potential by the truncated gamma distribution. Examples of risk assessment as a result of water erosion affecting the productivity of agricultural crops are given. The methodology of calculating damages and insurance compensation from drought effects is considered. Groups of models that make it possible to assess the variability in yields of cereals are selected. In some cases, it is possible to use regression models of the relationship of the effective trait with factors, time and previous values, and in others, the probability distribution laws with and without autocorrelation constraints. The example of a combination of extreme events in one year a drought and a shower is given. To plan the production of agrarian products, we propose extreme tasks for one unfavorable climatic event and a combination of two events. The resulted models are realized for the agricultural enterprise of Irkutsk district. The proposed algorithms and models allow solving the problems of choosing the most acceptable control option in the conditions of drought and rainfall manifestations.

Modeling of the Production of Agrarian Products under the Conditions of Influence of Droughts, Rainfall and their Combinations