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The relevance of the paper is determined by the changes in the conditions of energy and economy development, that impose new requirements on the methodology of energy demand forecasting. The most important changes are happening to energy consumers. The consumers, as equal participants in the electricity market, will affect demand, prices and adaptability in the power system in future. The main reason to use semantic approach and agent-based modeling is impossibility to formalize direct and feedback connections between consumers and central power grid along with high uncertainty. Ontology and cognitive model of the regional energy system was designed. It allows to recognize and determine cause-effect relationships in different operating conditions of the regional energy system. The developed algorithm and model, based on the agent approach, make it possible to assess the possibilities and the strength of consumer behavior effect on the development of the regional power grid.

Semantic Approach and Agent-based Modeling for Electricity Demand Forecasting in the Regional Market