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Purpose of this paper is to explore the origins of external default, domestic default and banking crisis. Using Random Forest (Breiman et al.,1984) to measure variable importance, we adopt the long-dated cross-country data on public debt developed by Reinhart and Rogoff (2009), which covers 66 countries in 1970 to 2012. The robust conclusions as follows.1. “Debtrelated variables” have higher importance on eruption of external default. 2. “Macroeconomicrelated variables” reflecting the background of a country have higher importance on eruption of domestic default. 3. “The interest payments from debt” have higher importance on eruption of banking crisis. Especially, the origins of external default are corresponding with those of banking crisis. In the past, the relationship between macroeconomic variables and debt default is hard to conclude. However, we get robust conclusions, reflecting that “macroeconomicrelated variables”, “debt-related variables” are indeed important origins of external default, domestic default and banking crisis.

Comparing the Origins of External Default, Domestic Default and Banking Crisis