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This paper introduces the calculation process of collision probability between spacecraft and short-term debris cloud. On the base of the time integral method about collision probability calculation, the time required for the spacecraft to travel through the debris cloud by the way of "risk radius"; On the base of "quasi mean probability" and the form of binomial distribution, reestablished the mathematical expression for calculating the spacecraft and space debris collision probability, which is more consistent with the actual situation. Finally, by sample analysis, the rationality of the analytical method is validated.

An Algorithm for Calculating Collision Probability of Spacecraft and Short-term Debris Cloud Based on Binomial Distribution