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Based on the econometric test of environmental kuznets EKC effect, a discrete model is proposed to describe the relationship between economic growth and pollutant emission. This model is used to analyze the policy of "guiding opinions on the reform of urban heating system" implemented by China in 2003, and to observe whether the policy can bring the effect of energy-saving and emission reduction. Since the heating system is closely related to sulfur dioxide emissions, this paper takes sulfur dioxide as a typical pollutant, analyzes the changes of economic growth level and sulfur dioxide emissions in the provinces and municipalities involved in the heating system reform from 2003 to 2013, and compares that with non-pilot province and all provinces as well as with the same pilot provinces from 2000 to 2002.The empirical results show that, first of all, the inflection point of the inverted u-shaped curve indeed moved to the left compared that before 2003. Second, after comparing pilot provinces with non-pilot provinces and all provinces after 2003, it was found that the environmental Kuznets curve moved slightly to the left compared with non-pilot provinces and all provinces. It can be seen from the graph that the order of crossing the inflection point is pilot provinces, all provinces and non-pilot provinces, indicating that this policy had indeed brought some positive effects and achieved the effect of energy conservation and emission reduction. Keywords—Economic growth; Sulfur dioxide emission; Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC); Panel data estimation; Policy evaluation

Urban Heating System Reform and Environmental Kuznets Curve: Based on the Analysis of Provincial Panel Data from 2000 to 2013