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the exploration risk is the most important factor that hamper the development of shale gas industry now. So in this paper we try to analysis and appraisal the exploration risk in order to help the investors to make investment decision. Through analysis we know that there are two kinds of risks: one is distribution risk; the other is cognitive risk. Then a probability model is established to fast appraisal the exploration risk. The formula of the model shows that the generation condition is the most important factor, the thickness of the shale, the content of organic, the thermal maturity of organic, the condition of the roof and floor layer, the fault condition, exposed or not, the buried depth of the reservoir are the key factors, the content of brittle mineral and the volume percentage of "wet" rock are the "plus" term in the model, not the decisive factors.

The Analysis and Fast Appraisal of Shale Gas Exploration Risk in China