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The aim of the study is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance in Indonesia from 1986 to 2018 (33 years) using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model. Also, the study examining the possibility of the J-Curve effect in Indonesia’s trade balance. The main findings of this study are: in Indonesia, from 1986 to 2018, the value of net trade last year brings a small effect on the value of the exchange rate. However, it significantly reacts to the shock on the exchange rate, although it is not depicted as the J-Curve effect. Keywords-Exchange rate, Trade balance, Indonesia, VAR, J-Curve

The Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Trade Balances: An Empirical Study on Indonesia