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Abstrak. Data penjualan songkok Nasional yang diproduksi oleh UMKM kabupaten Gresik selalu mengalami fluktuatif dan data tersebut juga berpengaruh adanya trend naik. Untuk mendeteksi penjualan kedepan yang berpengaruh dengan persediaan bahan baku. Sehingga kami menggunakan pemodelan dengan  Double Exponential Smoothing dan Winter Multiplicative Seasonality . Dari hasil pemodelan ternyata nilai MAD dan MSD yang didapat terkecil adalah model Winter Multiplicative Seasonality , sehingga model tersebut kami buat forecasting untuk 6 bulan kedepan. Kata Kunci: Double Exponential Smoothing, Winter Multiplicative Seasonality, forecasting. Abstract. Data on National Songkok sales produced by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Gresik Regency of East Java Province was always fluctuate and the data also influences the uptrend. In order to detect future sales which was affecting the inventory of raw materials, this research use modeling with Double Exponential Smoothing and Winter Multiplicative Seasonality. From the modeling results, it turns out the smallest value of MAD and MSD is the Winter Multiplicative Seasonality model. The data used by the model forecast for the next 6 months. Keywords: Double Exponential Smoothing, Winter Multiplicative Seasonality, forecasting.

matematika

Perbandingan Peramalan Dengan Metode Eksponensial Smoothing dan Winter Multiplicative Seasonality pada Data Penjualan Songkok Nasional UMKM di Kabupaten Gresik