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The change of land use represents one of the major challenges that sustainability plans face, because it contributes to climate change and biodiversity loss. In view of this, based on the lack of knowledge of the patterns of land use changes and their effects on the ecosystems of Huimanguillo, Tabasco, an analysis with Land Change Modeler (2000-2010) was proposed to estimate the distribution of natural covers with greater environmental pressure. Based on this, a projection was built with Markov Chains and Cellular Automata (2030). Thus, during 2000 and 2010, significant gains were detected in wetlands (39 236 ha) and in arboreal vegetation (24 773 ha) that were favorable for the maintenance of ecosystem services. However, there were increases in the urban area (1 266 ha) in the face of the agricultural decline (53 639 ha) which, despite its losses, still represents the largest area in the territory, due to the permanence of productive activities. In addition, the 2010 spatial analysis against the 2030 projection found that trends in wetland growth (7 197 ha), tree vegetation (9 937 ha) and urban use (1 498 ha) continued in the face of agricultural area losses (16 433 ha). This study generated helpful mapping information for determining environmental planning strategies and policies that may lead to the implementation of an ecological regulatory zoning for urban development and to decreeing Protected Natural Areas.

Análisis geomático espacial del cambio de uso del suelo en Huimanguillo, Tabasco (2000-2010-2030)