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Objective: This study predicts the prevalence of loneliness among people aged 65 or over across small geographical units in England. Method: It uses spatial two-level mixed-effects logistic regression model on data from a household survey and applies results to census data. Results: There is a huge variation of prevalence of loneliness among older people across England, which cannot be explained by local area characteristics, and are not spatially correlated. Discussion: This is the first attempt to estimate prevalence of loneliness among older people in England for small geographical units. Some limitations: The survey contains one question on loneliness with three categories; more detailed measures could not be used. Missing data could not could not be imputed as it was not possible to rule out non-randomness. Finally, ethnicity and sexual orientation were not included in the models due to data limitations. Public health implications: The method described in this paper can be used to design tailor-made interventions to address loneliness in later life in small geographical areas and to compare differences in prevalence across areas in a state, region or country.

Predicting the Prevalence of Loneliness in Old Age Across Small Geographical Areas in England