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The Brazilian semi-arid region presents a highly variable rainfall regime in space and time. Although the mechanisms of rainfall have been well described and numerically modelled, reliable forecasts for more than six months in advance cannot be produced yet, as well as projections of climate change in the long term. This paper contributes to the understanding of the variability examining a more than 100-year time series of a rainfall gauge in this region, using three techniques: wavelet analysis, MannKendall and Sen tests. The techniques allow the description of the patterns of variability of rainfall and suggest that there is not still a clear evidence of climate change.

Variability of Rainfall in the Semi-Arid Region of Brazil