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BackgroundLarge measles and mumps outbreaks recently occurred throughout Europe and the United States. Aim : Our aim was to estimate and map the risk of resurgence for measles, mumps and rubella in France. Methods : We used a multi-cohort model combining seroprevalence information, vaccine coverage and social contact data. Results : The overall outbreak risk for France in 2018 was highest for mumps, remained significant for measles despite a recent measles outbreak and was low for rubella. Outbreak risks were heterogeneous between departments, as the effective reproduction numbers for 2018 ranged from 1.08 to 3.66. The seroprevalence, and therefore the risk of measles and rubella infection, differed significantly between males and females. There was a lower seroprevalence, and therefore a higher risk, for males. Infants of less than 1 year would be seriously affected in a future outbreak of measles, mumps or rubella, but the highest overall caseload contribution would come from teenagers and young adults (10-25 years old). Conclusions : The high risk for teenagers and young adults is of concern in view of their vulnerability to more severe measles, mumps and rubella disease and complications.

Resurgence risk for measles, mumps and rubella in France in 2018 and 2020