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Este trabalho teve como objetivo analisar a aptidao climatica para a cultura da manga para o clima atual e cenarios futuros do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental de Mudancas Climaticas) no Brasil. As condicoes climaticas ideais para a cultura da manga utilizados neste estudo foram padronizadas para o Brasil de acordo com documentos Zoneamento de Riscos Climaticos Agricola. Para o zoneamento futuro da manga foram utilizados os dados de temperatura do ar e precipitacao gerar por PRECIS e modelos ETA-CPTEC para os cenarios de altas e baixas emissoes de dioxido de carbono do IPCC (Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudancas Climaticas), para as condicoes atuais (de base), 2025 e 2055. Foi utilizado sistema de informacao geografica para elaborar os mapas e tabelas. Os resultados indicam que pode haver reducoes nas areas apropriadas para o cultivo de manga no Brasil, considerando-se os modelos climaticos gerados pelo ETA e PRECIS. Assim, o manejo da cultura da manga deve ser adaptado para tornar possivel obter producao satisfatoria em cenarios de baixa disponibilidade hidrica e aumento da temperatura. Normal 0 21 false false false PT-BR X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabela normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";} This work aimed to analyze the climatic aptitude for mango crop to the current climate and future IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios in Brazil. The optimal climatic conditions for mango crop used in this study were standardized for Brazil according to Agricultural Zoning Climate Risk documents. For the future mango zoning was used the data of air temperature and precipitation generate by PRECIS and ETA-CPTEC models in concern to scenarios of high and low emissions of carbon dioxide of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), for current conditions (Baseline), 2025 and 2055. It was used geographic information systems to elaborate the maps and tables. The results indicate that there may be reductions in the areas suitable for the cultivation of mango in Brazil, considering the climate models generated by ETA and PRECIS. Thus, the mango crop management should be adapted to make possible obtain satisfactory production under scenarios of lower water availability and increased temperature. Keywords: Mangifera indica L., climate change, agroclimatic zoning.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Aptidão climática da mangueira frente ao clima atual e aos cenários futuros (Climatic aptitude for mango crop under actual and future climate scenarios)