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The Hydraulic Concepts Model Distributed from Large Basins of the Hydraulic Research Institute (MGB-IPH) is a rainfall-type model validated in several basins in South America, including in rivers of the Amazon Basin. The inputs of the model are climatological, rainfall, relief and soil cover data. The objective of this study is to test the sensitivity of the model in extreme scenarios of soil use and occupation, changes in precipitation and mean air temperature. The case study was carried out in the Curua-Una river basin, located southeast of Santarem-Para. The MapWindow-GIS software and the IPH-Hydro Tools plug-in were used in the preprocessing, and the MGB-IPH plugin was processed. The results showed that the MGB-IPH has sensitivity to changes in soil use, precipitation and mean air temperature. In the sensitivity test of soil use and occupation the results showed that low vegetation and anthropization increase the maximum peaks of flow; In periods of Amazon flood with low rainfall occurrence, the low vegetation scenario has a higher flow rate; And the forest scenery prevents intense floods. In the tests of changes in the precipitation regime, a 50% decrease in rainfall reduced the flow by 32% and a 50% increase in rainfall increased the flow by 218.6%. However, in the tests of increase of the mean air temperature the results did not show significant responses in the flow regime, however, this scenario, added with the increase and / or decrease of the precipitation regime, presented as attenuator for both floods and droughts. Teste de sensibilidade do Modelo Hidrologico de Grandes Bacias (MGB-IPH) em cenarios de mudancas extremas no uso e ocupacao do solo e, regime de precipitacao e temperatura media do ar R E S U M O O Modelo Hidrologico Conceitual Distribuido de Grandes Bacias do Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas (MGB-IPH) e um modelo do tipo chuva-vazao validado em diversas bacias da America do Sul, inclusive, em rios da bacia amazonica. As entradas do modelo sao dados climatologicos, relevo e cobertura do solo. Pretende-se neste estudo testar a sensibilidade do modelo em cenarios extremos de uso e ocupacao do solo e, alteracoes na precipitacao e temperatura media do ar. O estudo de caso foi realizado na bacia do rio Curua-Una localizado a sudeste de Santarem-Para. No pre-processamento utilizou-se o software MapWindow-GIS e o plugin IPH-Hydro Tools e no processamento utilizou-se o plugin MGB-IPH. Os resultados mostraram que o MGB-IPH possui sensibilidade as mudancas no uso do solo, precipitacao e temperatura media do ar. No teste de sensibilidade de uso e ocupacao do solo os resultados mostraram que vegetacao baixa e antropizacao aumentam os picos maximos de vazao; em periodos de cheia amazonica com ocorrencia de baixa precipitacao o cenario vegetacao baixa possui maior vazao; e o cenario oresta evita cheias intensas. Nos testes de mudancas no regime de precipitacao a diminuicao de 50% de chuvas reduziu a vazao em 32% e, o aumento de 50% de chuvas aumentou a vazao em 218,6%. Ja nos testes de aumento da temperatura media do ar os resultados nao mostraram respostas significativas no regime de vazao, porem este cenario, somado com o aumento e/ou diminuicao do regime de precipitacao, se apresentou como atenuador tanto para as cheias quanto para as secas. Palavras-chave: Modelagem Hidrologica, Uso e Ocupacao do Solo, Bacias hidrograficas, Testes de sensibilidade.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Sensitivity test of the Hydrological Model of Large Basins (MGB-IPH) in scenarios of extreme changes in soil use and occupation, precipitation regime and mean air temperature.