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A estimava da probabilidade de excedencia de eventos de precipitacoes pluviometricas maximas pode ser realizada a partir da associacao entre as series hidrologicas e modelos probabilisticos. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar a aderencia da distribuicao empirica de Precipitacoes Diarias Maximas Anuais (PDMA), as distribuicoes teoricas de probabilidade de Gumbel, Log-Normal de dois parâmetros, Generalizada de Valores Extremos, Frechet, Weibull para 2 e 3 parâmetros, Gama, Pearson e Log-Pearson para 3 parâmetros. Foi utilizada uma serie historica de precipitacao maxima diaria anual oriunda da cidade de Palmares-PE, a partir de dados obtidos da Agencia Nacional de Aguas (ANA). Para avaliar a qualidade de aderencia das distribuicoes, foram utilizados os testes de aderencia de Anderson Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) e o teste Qui-Quadrado de Pearson (χ 2 ). Para quantificacao da qualidade dos ajustes estatisticos utilizou-se do coeficiente de determinacao (R 2 ). As distribuicoes de Frechet e Weibull II nao apresentaram aderencia a distribuicao empirica de frequencia.  A distribuicao de Gumbel foi a que apresentou maior aderencia a distribuicao empirica de acordo com o teste Qui-Quadrado de Pearson (χ 2 ), enquanto que a GVE e a Pearson III aos testes AD e KS, respectivamente. A B S T R A C T To analyze and estimate the likelihood of new extreme precipitation events, hydrological data records and probabilistic mathematical modeling can be used associated with different recurrence frequencies. The objective of this study was to adjust the PDMA of the city of Palmares-PE, based on data obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA), the Gumbel probability distributions, Log-Normal of two Parameters, Generalized Extreme Values, Frechet, Weibull for 2 and 3 parameters, Range, Pearson and Log-Pearson for 3 parameters. In order to evaluate the statistical distributions, the Anderson Darling (AD), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Pearson Chi-Square (χ 2 ) tests were used, and the quantification of the quality of the statistical adjustments was done using coefficient of determination (R2). Among the probabilistic distributions analyzed, the only ones that do not fit are the distributions of FRECHET and Weibull II. The Gumbel distribution was the best fit for Pearson Chi-square test (χ 2 ), and GVE and Pearson III, respectively, for the AD and KS tests. Keywords: hydrology statistics, return time, intense rain, extreme events, random variables.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Modelos probabilísticos para eventos de precipitações extremas na Cidade de Palmares-PE (Probabilistic modeling for extreme rainfall events in the city of Palmares - PE)