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The constant changes in the landscape significantly change the local dynamic not only in the environmental context, but also socio-economic. The Vale do Paraiba paulista is marked by great changes linked to economic cycles Brazilians who moved the region into a vast mosaic of grasslands, forest fragments and urban area. Temporal studies about use and land cover allow to observe these changes and assess the impacts generated by them. Is the replacement of extensive areas of Atlantic forest to the Eucalypt monoculture that has high development and is constantly expanding in the Valley. Such a conversion of use has consequences in the Region, such as causing forest fragmentation on biodiversity loss, water and soil quality, increasing the rates of erosion. Analyses like these are important for the management of natural resources. The possibility of developing simulation scenarios for change of use and coverage of the Earth is crucial for a sustainable and efficient public management. Targeting these issues the present study seeks to design future scenarios taking into consideration different social, economic and environmental issues, from analysis of the dynamics of expansion of forestry in Vale do Paraiba. The scenarios created can be classified as "current" that maintains the same standards of changes observed period (2000-2005); "Optimistic" that reduces conversion rates for forestry and pasture, with consequent increase of the most vegetated areas; and "Pessimistic" that deforestation rates lever from the growth of eucalyptus and pasture crops. The development of future scenarios of 2010 to 2050 in spatial modeling platform proved effective, showing trends and pre provisions land use transitions being possible to use the results to environmental planning for sustainability and improved management of natural resources and the development of economic activities.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Análise Espaço-Temporal de Mudança de Uso e Cobertura da Terra na Região do Vale do Paraíba Paulista: Desenvolvimento de Cenários Futuros (Spatial and Temporal Changes in the Land Use and Cover of the Paraíba Valley in São Paulo, Brazil: Development of Future Scenarios)