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Uma das formas mais simples e aplicadas para a verificacao da Tendencia a Desertificacao (TD) e atraves dos Indices de Aridez (IA). Assim, com a possibilidade de verificacao da situacao do IA e da TD na Regiao Semiarida do Nordeste, o objetivo foi a investigacao da variacao do IA e suas classificacoes, ao longo do periodo de 1961 a 2015 (em series temporais de 30 anos), alem TD para a regiao alvo do estudo. E maioria unânime que esta ocorrendo a reducao do IA para a regiao semiarida do Nordeste, sendo que cada estado apresenta uma situacao peculiar e possivel justificativa para o que esta ocorrendo. Apesar de mudancas do IA, em muitas localidades, observou-se que nao ocorreu alteracoes na classificacao a Tendencia a Desertificacao, porem apresentam a maior tendencia desertificacao e a sua e classificacao e alta. Verificou-se que tambem e necessario o aprofundamento deste estudo, com mais variaveis e com o uso da modelagem numerica e de tendencia no que diz respeito a avaliacao da desertificacao para algumas regioes que foram pouco conclusivas do Semiarido do Nordeste. A B S T R A C T One of the most useful and applied forms for verification of the Desertification Trend (TD) is through the calculation of the Aridity Indices (IA). Thus, the present work uses such methodology to verify the situation of IA and TD in the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil. The objective was to investigate the variation of AI and its classifications over the period from 1961 to 2015, using a time series of 30 years, in addition to TD for the target region of the study. It is a consensus in the literature the occurrence of IA reduction for the semi-arid region of the Northeast, with each state presenting a peculiar situation and possible justification for the occurrence. With the results was possible to observe that in spite of changes of the IA in many localities, it was observed that there were no changes in the classification of the Tendency to Desertification. It was also verified the need to deepen these studies using climatic variables, with the use of more variables and with the use of numerical and trend modeling with regard to the evaluation of desertification for some regions that were not conclusive in this study. Keywords: Climate change, moving averages, climatology.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Variação do índice de aridez e tendência climática à desertificação para a região semiárida do nordeste brasileiro (Variation of aridity index and climatic trend to desertification for the semi-arid region of the Brazilian Northeast)