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O foco deste trabalho e na variabilidade espacial e temporal da precipitacao na regiao da Amazonia oriental (estados do Para, Maranhao e Tocantins) no periodo de 1982 a 2015. A aplicacao da analise de agrupamento permitiu a identificacao de quatro regioes homogeneas de precipitacao sobre a regiao, sendo que o periodo mais chuvoso (CHU+) e menos chuvoso (CHU-) ocorrem de forma diferenciada ao longo dos meses do ano, caracterizando a variabilidade pronunciada sobre a regiao. As areas-chave dos padroes de temperatura da superficie do mar (TSM) sobre os Oceanos Pacifico e Atlântico foram selecionadas atraves de correlacoes significantes, com a finalidade de montar os modelos de regressao simples e multipla para a geracao das previsoes sazonais de precipitacao nas regioes homogeneas durante os regimes CHU+ e CHU-. Os resultados dos modelos indicaram que as previsoes com lag0 (preditores de TSM no mesmo periodo de ocorrencia dos regimes CHU+ e CHU-) sao melhores do que as previsoes defasadas (preditores de TSM no mes, bimestre e trimestre anterior ao regime CHU+ e CHU-), independente do modelo ser de regressao simples (apenas uma area de TSM) ou multipla (duas, tres ou quatro areas de TSM). A B S T R A C T The focus of the present work is on time and spatial variability of precipitation in eastern Amazon (Para, Maranhao and Tocantins states) during 1982 to 2015 period. The application of the cluster analysis allowed the identification of four homogeneous regions of precipitation over region, with the rainy (CHU+) and dry (CHU-) periods occuring in different ways throughout the months of the year, featuring the pronounced climate variability of the region. The key-areas of the patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) over Pacific and Atlantic Oceans were selected through significant correlations, in order to build simple and multiple regression models to generate seasonal forecasts of precipitation in regions homogeneous during the CHU + and CHU- regimes. The results of the models indicated that the lag0 predictions (SST predictors in the same period of occurrence of CHU + and CHU-) are better than the lagged forecasts (SST predictors of the month, two-months and three-months preceding the CHU + and CHU-), regardless of the model is simple (only one TSM area) or multiple (two, three or four areas of SST) . Keywords: precipitation regionalization, Pacific and Atlantic SST, linear regression models.

Prognóstico Sazonal de Precipitação Regionalizada na Amazônia Oriental (Seasonal prognostic of regionalized precipitation in Eastern Amazon)