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A suscetibilidade da regiao Nordeste do Brasil ao processo de desertificacao esta associada a variabilidade do clima e a fatores antropogenicos. Nesse contexto, extremos climaticos intensos associados a degradacao do solo podem levar a aceleracao do processo de desertificacao no semiarido. O objetivo do trabalho e avaliar processo de desertificacao no estado de Pernambuco e suas projecoes para o seculo XXI. O estudo foi realizado com dados mensais de simulacoes de precipitacao e temperatura do Climatic Research Unit (CRU) e projecoes do modelo HADGEM2-ES derivado do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, utilizados no quinto relatorio do Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC-AR5) no cenario RCP 8.5. Para analise, a evapotranspiracao potencial foi calculada pelo metodo de Thornthwaite, que serviu para o calculo do indice de aridez. O indice de aridez e bastante utilizado nos estudos para a determinacao de areas secas e principalmente nos estudos do processo de desertificacao. Os resultados indicaram que, considerando a variabilidade do climatica atual e futura no Nordeste do Brasil, associada a acoes antropicas, o estado de Pernambuco tem uma alta suscetibilidade a desertificacao. A B S T R A C T The Brazilian Northeast region susceptibility to desertification process is associated with climate variability and anthropogenic factors. Intense climatic extremes associated with soil degradation may accelerate the desertification process in the semiarid region. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the desertification process in Pernambuco state and its projections for the 21st century. The study was carried out with monthly precipitation and temperature datasets from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and HADGEM2-ES projections, derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, used in the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC -AR5) in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The potential evapotranspiration was calculated by the Thornthwaite method, which was used to calculate the aridity index. The aridity index is widely used in to determine dry areas, especially in desertification process studies. The results shows that, considering the current and future climate variability in Brazilian Northeast, associated with anthropic actions, Pernambuco has a high susceptibility to desertification. Keywords: CMIP5; Aridity Index; Semi-arid.

revista brasileira de geografia física

Projeção da suscetibilidade a desertificação em Pernambuco utilizando o modelo HADGEM-ES (Projection of susceptibility to desertification in Pernambuco using the HADGEM-ES model)