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Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the 2023 Mw 7.8 Turkey earthquakestarted on a splay fault, then branched bilaterally onto the nearby EastAnatolian Fault (EAF). This rupture pattern includes one feature deemedimplausible, called backward rupture branching: rupture propagating from thesplay fault onto the SW EAF segment through a sharp corner (with an acute anglebetween the two faults). To understand this feature, we perform 2.5-D dynamicrupture simulations considering a large set of possible scenarios. We find thatboth subshear and supershear ruptures on the splay fault can trigger bilateralruptures on the EAF, which themselves can be either subshear, supershear, or amixture of the two. In most cases, rupture on the SW segment of the EAF startsafter rupture onset on its NE segment: the SW rupture is triggered by the NErupture. Only when the EAF has initial stresses very close to failure, its SWsegment can be directly triggered by the initial splay-fault rupture, earlierthan the activation of the NE segment. These results advance our understandingof the mechanisms of multi-segment rupture and the complexity of ruptureprocesses, paving the way for a more accurate assessment of earthquake hazards.

The sharp turn: backward rupture branching during the 2023 Mw 7.8 Turkey earthquake