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ASSIMILATING NON-PROBABILITSTIC ASSESSMENTS OF THE ESTIMATION OF UNCERTAINTY BIAS IN EXPERT JUDGMENT ELICITATION USING AN EVIDENCE BASED APPROACH IN HIGH CONSEQUENCE CONCEPTUAL DESIGNS Colin K. S. Barrows Old Dominion University, 2006 Director: Dr. Resit Unal One of the major challenges in conceptual designs of complex systems is the identification of uncertainty embedded in the information due to lack of historic data. This becomes of increased concern especially in high-risk industries. This document reports a developed methodology that allows for the cognitive bias, estimation of uncertainty, to be elucidated to improve the quality of elicited data. It consists of a comprehensive literature review that begins by defining a ‘High Consequence Conceptual Engineering Environment’ and identifies the high-risk industries in which these environments are found. It proceeds with a discussion that differentiates risk and uncertainty in decision-making in these environments. An argument was built around the identified epistemic category of uncertainty, the impact on hard data for decision-making, and from whom we obtain this data. The review shifts to defining and selecting the experts, the elicitation process in terms of the components, the process phases and steps involved, and an examination of a probabilistic and a fuzzy example. This sets the stage for this methodology that uses evidence theory for the mathematical analysis after the data is elicited using a tailored elicitation process. Yager’s combination rule is used to combine evidence and fully recognize the ignorance without ignoring available information. Engineering and management teams from NASA Langley Research Center were R eproduced with perm ission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without perm ission.

odu digital commons (old dominion university)

Assimilating Non-Probabilistic Assessments of the Estimation of Uncertainty Bias in Expert Judgment Elicitation Using an Evidence Based Approach in High Consequence Conceptual Designs