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P re sen ted in th is paper i s a methodology to evaluate, analyze, and predict c r i t i c a l human performance . approach towards evaluating potential human e r r o r . The a i m of the Cr i t ica l Human P e r f o r mance and Evaluation P r o g r a m (CHPAE) i s t o develop a methodology to control and minimize the na tura l subjectivity associa ted with evaluation p rog rams . The typical approach of the CHPAE i s ; ( 1 ) analyze the sys t em o r task, (2) se lec t evaluation fac tors , ( 3 ) es tabl i sh and prevalidate a ra t ing manual o r check l i s t , (4) per form an analys is and evaluation, (5) es t imate potential e r r o r probabil i t ies , and (6) per form c r i t i ca l compar ison studies. Much work s t i l l remains to be done towards a complete and final validation of the p rog rampa r t l y because t he re i s a var ie ty of methods both computerized and manual that can be applied to quantify the evaluations and pa r t l y because of the need of l a rge population s ta t i s t ics , other than exper imenta l o r selected sou rce da ta t o validate the e r r o r potential p r e diction of the plan. l imitat ions of the m e t r i c , the plan will pe r fo rm a valuable human fac tors evaluation of a group of tasks , subsys tems o r sys tems. The methodology i s a novel

A METHODOLOGY TO ANALYZE AND EVALUATE CRITICAL HUMAN PERFORMANCE