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This work proposes a continuum-based approach for the propagation ofuncertainties in the initial conditions and parameters for the analysis andprediction of spacecraft re-entries. Using the continuity equation togetherwith the re-entry dynamics, the joint probability distribution of theuncertainties is propagated in time for specific sampled points. At each timeinstant, the joint probability distribution function is then reconstructed fromthe scattered data using a gradient-enhanced linear interpolation based on asimplicial representation of the state space. Uncertainties in the initialconditions at re-entry and in the ballistic coefficient for threerepresentative test cases are considered: a three-state and a six-state steepEarth re-entry and a six-state unguided lifting entry at Mars. The paper showsthe comparison of the proposed method with Monte Carlo based techniques interms of quality of the obtained marginal distributions and runtime as afunction of the number of samples used.

Propagation and reconstruction of re-entry uncertainties using continuity equation and simplicial interpolation