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The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system thatenables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and newairspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NASwithout degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations,standards, and systems are required to mitigate the risk of a midair collisionbetween aircraft. Monte Carlo simulations have been a foundational capabilityfor decades to develop, assess, and certify aircraft conflict avoidancesystems. These are often validated through human-in-the-loop experiments andflight testing. For many aviation safety studies, manned aircraft behavior isrepresented using dynamic Bayesian networks. The original statistical modelswere developed from 2008-2013 to support safety simulations for altitudes above500 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). However, these models were not sufficient toassess the safety of smaller UAS operations below 500 feet AGL. In response,newer models with altitude floors below 500 feet AGL have been in developmentsince 2018. Many of the models assume that aircraft behavior is uncorrelatedand not dependent on air traffic services or nearby aircraft. Our researchobjective was to compare the various uncorrelated models of conventionalaircraft and identify how the models differ. Particularly if models ofrotorcraft were sufficiently different than models of fixed-wing aircraft torequire type specific models. The primary contribution is guidance on whichuncorrelated models to leverage when evaluating the performance of a collisionavoidance system designed for low altitude operations. We also address whichmodels can be surrogates for noncooperative aircraft without transponders.

Applicability and Surrogacy of Uncorrelated Airspace Encounter Models at Low Altitudes