English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

In this study, it has been aimed to find the best ‘ Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( SARIMA)’ model for monthly inflation rates for Turkish economy over the period 1995:01-2015:03. Before the model identification based on Box Jenkins methodology, HEGY monthly seasonal unit root test has been applied. The orders of seasonal differencing have been detected through OCSB and CH tests. Finally, ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,2)[12] with drift model chosen by using stepwise selection method and ARIMA(1,1,1)(2,0,0)[12] with drift model chosen by using non-stepwise selection have been compared. The results have shown that the former model is better as the best fitted SARIMA model. Keywords: Inflation, Box Jenkins, SARIMA, HEGY, OCSB, CH, Stepwise Selection. JEL Classification Codes: C01, C22, C51, E31. Turkiye Icin Enflasyon Oraninin Uygun Mevsimsel ARIMA Modeli Ile Belirlenmesi Oz Bu calismada Turkiye’nin 1995:01-2015:03 donemine iliskin aylik enflasyon oranlari icin en iyi ‘ Mevsimsel Otoregresif Butunlesik Hareketli Ortalama (SARIMA)’ modelini bulmak amaclanmistir. Box Jenkins metodolojisine dayali model tanimlamasindan once HEGY mevsimsel birim kok testi uygulanmistir. Mevsimsel fark alma dereceleri OCSB ve CH testleri kullanilarak saptanmistir. Son olarak, sirasiyla adimsal (stepwise) ve adimsal olmayan (non-stepwise) secim yontemleri kullanilarak secilen suruklenmeli ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,2)[12] ve ARIMA(1,1,1)(2,0,0)[12] modelleri karsilastirilmistir. Sonuclar adimsal yontem kullanilarak secilen suruklenmeli ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,2)[12] modelinin en iyi uyan SARIMA modelini belirlemede adimsal olmayan modele gore daha iyi oldugunu gostermistir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Enflasyon, Box Jenkins, SARIMA, HEGY, OCSB, CH, Adimsal Secim. JEL Siniflandirma Kodlari: C01, C22, C51, E31.

Detecting the Best Seasonal ARIMA Forecasting Model for Monthly Inflation Rates in Turkey