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This paper presents a methodology to estimate the maximum greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential of grid-connected photovoltaic residential systems. To this aim, electricity generation in the national-grid-isolated state of Baja California Sur, Mexico, is studied and emissions factors calculated (kg CO₂e/kWh). In parallel, a simple approach based on peak sun hours is used to estimate the monthly electricity generation of grid-connected photovoltaic systems operating within the net metering scheme currently in use in Mexico. This investigation obtained an emissions factor of 0.892 kg CO₂e per kWh of electricity consumed in Baja California Sur and an annual electricity generation by a local photovoltaic system of 1825 kWh per kW of installed nominal capacity. With these figures, the upper limit of the mitigation potential of grid-connected photovoltaic residential systems in the state is estimated at 577 425 Mg CO₂e per annum. The general methodology could also be applied to other zero-emissions renewable energy technologies in use elsewhere.

A methodology to estimate the potential of grid-connected PV residential systems for greenhouse gas emission reductions