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In this paper an individual risk model in the case of road accidents is presented. The aim is to estimate the probability of a pedestrian being involved and the probability of injuries under pre-assigned conditions. The model calculates the individual risk of drivers and pedestrians moving in predefined scenarios that can be changed according with the purpose of the analysis. The model evaluates, in a quantitative way, each attribute’s share in accident occurrence, and the relation between risk level and attribute. The model can support the decisional process in planning, allowing one to compare hazard levels of various hypothetical scenarios and to analyse the weight and the elasticity of each attribute that characterize the accident scenario. The results are presented of a test performed in the city of Reggio Calabria (Italy) in order to verify the model transferability and reliability.

An individual risk model in the case of a road accident to support the decisional process in planning