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The biggest hydropower system (HS) in Lithuania is situated on River Nemunas and consists of Kruonis pump storage plant and Kaunas hydropower plant. Just downstream from the system Kaunas city is situated, with a population over 0.4 million, the safety of the population is strongly dependent on the hydropower system reliability. Risk decision strategies considered using risk analysis, applied for the following system issues: before the water level reaches maximal limit, it is necessary to make risk based decisions related to the dam safety. A risk based decision making model proposes a water amount in the upper and downstream reservoirs and by numerical examples shows how decisions are dependent on different risk levels in order to decrease flood risk.

Risk based decision making in Kaunas hydropower system during flood period