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As the projects on unmanned merchant vessels’ technology development and implementation progress, the ships’ impact on maritime safety remains largely unclear. Safety is one of the industry’s top priorities and a crucial value required for unmanned means of transportation to be accepted by public. Although concept works included safety assessments from their very beginning, results of those were inevitably burdened with uncertainties due to the fact that little is known about prospective systems’ design and no empirical data pertaining to their performance is available. As a matter of fact, rarely was the magnitude of uncertainties evaluated and communicated. Such communication may be crucial for future decision-makers to make informed decisions regarding the systems’ design and performance. Therefore, we apply a system-theoretic approach to analyze one of the potentially critical aspects of unmanned shipping, namely vessel’s transition between remote and autonomous operation with respect to existing hazards and ways of ensuring that safety is not exposed during the process. Furthermore, we apply a method of analyzing and communicating uncertainties pertaining to such safety assessment, by the uncertainties’ magnitude categorization. The optimum way of providing designers with information about strength of knowledge supporting the safety analysis is sought.

A method for uncertainty assessment and communication in safety-driven design - a case study of unmanned merchant vessel