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Uvod: Model IEUBK je računalniško podprto orodje, ki na podlagi vnesenih podatkov o izpostavljenosti oceni koncentracijo svinca v krvi otrok. Namen raziskave je bil s pomočjo modela ugotoviti, ali izmerjene koncentracije svinca v krvi otrok iz Zgornje Mežiške doline ustrezno zrcalijo obremenjenost okolja s svincem, in oceniti, kateri so najpomembnejši dejavniki izpostavljenosti. Metoda dela: V raziskavi smo uporabili model IEUBK s podatkio koncentracijah svinca v zraku, zemlji, hišnem prahu in pitni vodi v Zgornji Mežiški dolini in privzetimi vrednostmi za preostale dejavnike izpostavljenosti. Vrednosti, ki jih je napovedal model, smo primerjali z izmerjenimi vrednosti svinca v krvi otrok v letih 2001-2002 in 2004-2007. Med seboj smo primerjali skupine otrok, oblikovane na podlagi geografske lege stalnega bivališča. Uporabili smo pristopa pri oblikovanju skupin. Ujemanje napovedanih in izmerjenih vrednosti smo ocenili na podlagi prekrivanja vrednosti in pripadajočih 95-odstotnih intervalov zaupanja. Rezultati: Vključenih je bilo 196 triletnih otrok iz Zgornje Mežiške doline. Zadovoljivo ujemanje med napovedanimi in izmerjenimi vrednostmi je bilo pri 6 izmed 8 skupin, ki so vključevale vsaj pet otrok pri prvem pristopu oz. pri 5 od 7 skupin pri drugem pristopu. Simulacije z modelom so za vse skupine napovedale delež vnosa svinca preko zemlje in hišnega prahu v vrednosti nad 80 % skupnega vnosa. Zaključek: Rezultati kažejo, da otroci z najvišjimi vrednostmi svinca živijo na najbolj onesnaženih območjih in da sta zemlja in hišni prah pomembna dejavnika izpostavljenosti svincu. Model je uporabno orodje za napovedovanje svinca v krvi otrok, saj je zelo prilagodljiv in omogoča natančen opis izpostavljenosti otrok svincu in identifikacijo najpomembnejših virov izpostavljenosti, če je na razpolago dovolj krajevno specifičnih podatkov.Introduction: The Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) Model for Leadin Children is a computer software package used for determining blood leadconcentrations in children on the basis of information about their exposure to lead. Data on environmental lead pollution of the Upper Meža valley were used for calculations by the model. The aim of the study was to determine whether lead burden data for children reflect environmental lead contamination, and to identify the most important lead exposure risk factors in the Upper Meža valley. Methods: Data on air, soil, house dust and drinking water lead concentrations for the Upper Meža valley were used for calculationsby the IEUBK model, together with default values for other lead exposure factors. The values predicted by the model were compared to blood lead concentrations in children measured during the periods 2001-2002 and 2004-2007. The groups of children compared were formed on the basis of the geographical location of their residence, using two different approaches. The level of agreement between the observed and predicted values was assessed on the basis of the overlap between the two values and on the basis of the calculated 95 % confidence intervals. Results: The study involved 196 three-year-old children from the Upper Meža valley. Using the first approach the predicted values were in good accordance with the measured levels for sixout of eight groups including at least five children, and by the second approach, good accordance was found for five of seven groups. Simulations by the IEUBK model showed that over 80 % of the total lead intake was through ingestion of soil and dust in all groups. Conclusion: The results show that children with highest blood lead levels live in the most polluted areas where soil and house dust are important lead exposure factors. The IEUBK model is a useful tool for predicting blood lead levels in children. It is very adaptableand allows for accurate assessment of lead exposure in children, as well as for identification of most important exposure factors, provided that sufficient site specific data are available

The IEUBK model for lead blood burden prediction in children used in the exploration and remediation of the Upper Meža valley environment