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It is very difficult to control the emissions of greenhouse gases below the target level of the Kyoto Protocol because of influences on the economy.Emission trading is thought to be an efficient measure to achieve the target level.In this study,we developed a simulation model of Japanese emission trading under the Kyoto Protocol and verified the feasibility of emission trading. The simulation model is based on a dual input-output model and GDP was maximized in the simulation with CO restrictions.We analyzed three cases;Case 1 with free control emissions, Case 2 targeting the Kyoto Protocol by emission trading,and Case 3 assuming a more moderate restriction of emissions involving forest deposits.These simulations are based on data from 2000. As a result,the critical price was approximately five or six thousands yen per ton-CO in Japan. In addition,reduction in the gross CO emissions with only restrictions on emissions is very difficult.Therefore trading emissions permits are considered an effective measure to create incentives to reduce net emissions of CO. JEL Classification:Q52,Q56,Q58

Simulation Analysis of the Critical Price for Greenhouse Gases Emission Permits