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Este artigo tem como objetivo testar a hipotese de dependencia espacial na taxa de criminalidade dos municipios da regiao Sul do Brasil. Para tanto, utilizou-se dados relativos aos homicidios provenientes do Sistema de Informacao de Mortalidade (SIM-DATASUS), pertencente ao Ministerio da Saude, e variaveis do DATASUS e do Censo Demografico. As analises descritivas revelaram que a criminalidade segue um determinado padrao comportamental quanto a escolha dos municipios em que a mesma ocorre. Com base na Analise Exploratoria de Dados Espaciais (AEDE), observou-se que tanto o indicador de associacao global quanto o local apontam indicios de nao aleatoriedade do crime no espaco. A partir desse resultado, estimou-se o Modelo Classico de Regressao Linear, visando constatar tal dependencia e, em seguida, o modelo econometrico-espacial SAR-MQ2E para a obtencao de estimativas mais precisas e robustas. Os resultados do modelo espacial mostraram que a criminalidade sulista esta correlacionada ao crime passado, ao desemprego, a densidade demografica, ao Indice de Desenvolvimento Humano e as diferencas individuais de cada Estado (captadas pela dummies de Estado).  Abstract This paper aims to test the spatial dependence hypothesis on crime rate of the municipalities of the south region of Brazil in the year 2012. To this end, it were collected data from the Mortality Information System (SIM-DATASUS), belonging to the Ministry of Health, together with variables from DATASUS and the Demographic Census. Descriptive analyzes revealed that crime follows a certain behavioral pattern regarding the choice of the municipalities in which it occurs. Based on the Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), it was observed that both the indicator of global and local association show evidence of the non-randomness of crime in space. From this result, it was estimated the Classical Linear Regression Model, aiming to verify such dependency, and then the SAR-MQ2E econometric-spatial model to obtain more accurate and robust estimates. The results of the spatial model showed that southern crime correlates with past crime, unemployment, demographic density, Human Development Index and individual differences in each state (captured by the state dummies).

drd - desenvolvimento regional em debate

Testando a hipótese de dependência espacial na taxa de crime dos municípios da Região Sul do Brasil / Testing the space dependence hypothesis on crime rate of the municipalities of the south region of Brazil